I think the high-octane offense of the Spurs will overwhelm the Timberwolves in Game 6. Wembanyama has been a problem for them all series, and I don't see a world where they'll be able to stop him tonight. If I'm Chris Finch, I'd do my best to orchestrate a game plan that attempts to lower Wembanyama's usage rate. Even when he struggles from the field and doesn't see the ball go through the net, his presence alone allows him to single-handedly affect the game.
In the minutes Wembanyama has been off the court, the Spurs have had a negative net rating. The Timberwolves need to use these minutes to go on their runs. If they can continue to win the minutes when he's off the court and do enough to slow down the Spurs' offense when he's on it, they can come away with a Game 6 win.
However, that starts with the looks they get on offense. In Game 5, they relied on too many threes. There were numerous times in the first quarter where the likes of Julius Randle and Ayo Dosunmu spotted up for three on a fastbreak opportunity. They need to limit the number of threes taken and attack the paint when Wemby is not in the lineup. However, I think that identity needs to stay the same even when Wemby is in the game. Although his defensive force is unquestionable, Wembanyama lacks in strength. Julius Randle — one of, if not the most, physical players in the NBA — needs to continue to use his body to get into the chest of Wembanyama. The more the Timberwolves drive, the more they can get to the free-throw line or put Wemby in foul trouble.
As for Anthony Edwards, Chris Finch needs to draw up more plays to get Ant the ball more often. In Game 1, Edwards was making some very difficult shots, but those shots stopped falling in subsequent games. For Ant to be a more consistent offensive threat, the Timberwolves need to incorporate Edwards in more screening actions — whether that's a flare screen where he's the motion man, or a back screen where he receives the ball in the mid-post. Edwards needs to be more deeply embedded in the offense.
However, I think the supporting cast around Wembanyama will ultimately be too much for the Timberwolves. Dylan Harper is playing like a seasoned veteran right now, and De'Aaron Fox is finally remembering he has the most dangerous pick-and-roll center in the NBA. If the Spurs can continue to use Wemby in pick-and-rolls and keep hitting from three, I think they walk away tonight with the opportunity to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference Finals.
If the Detroit Pistons want to extend their season, Jalen Duren needs to show up. The All-Star center who averaged nearly 20 points and 11 rebounds per game has looked lost this entire series. His hesitation to shoot on the offensive end has not only put the Pistons in a win-or-go-home scenario, but has reportedly given the front office pause about offering him a max extension.
JB Bickerstaff has spoken to the media about bringing in Paul Reed when the Pistons needed a spark off the bench, and in almost every game Reed has outplayed Duren in the limited minutes he's received. If I'm Bickerstaff, with my back against the wall, I'm utilizing Paul Reed more in Game 6. His energy has been contagious all series long, and his physicality has tested the Cavaliers' frontcourt every single night.
Although Game 6 will be in "The Land" — one of the toughest environments in the NBA to play in — I think the Pistons will come away with a victory if Reed and Caris LeVert see more minutes today. Their juice off the bench, both offensively and defensively, has challenged the Cavs' stars in recent games and given Detroit a different look that Cleveland has struggled to adjust to.
However, the Pistons need to limit their turnovers. With Cade Cunningham operating as the star guard at an extremely high usage rate, turnovers are almost inevitable on his part — but his playmaking and scoring will cancel out those mistakes on most nights. What the Pistons really need to reduce are the turnovers when the ball isn't in his hands. Daniss Jenkins has been on a heater from three-point range over the last couple of games, and Ausar Thompson has been a menace defensively, so as long as Cunningham's supporting cast continues to play well, I see the Pistons forcing a Game 7.